2014-2015 Sonbahar - Kış Genel Tahmin

Meteorolojik Model Güncelleme Saatleri
06:30-08:15 (GFS Sabah)
09:00-10:00 (ECMWF Sabah)
12:30-14:15 (GFS Öğlen)
18:30-20:15 (GFS Akşam)
21:00-22:00 (ECMWF Akşam)
00:30-02:15 (GFS Gece)
    Zitat von serkie


    Accuweather'a göre bol lodos ve yağışlı bir kış geçireceğiz. Cold shotsların ülkemize sık sık uğraması dileğiyle...


    Accuweather'ın dediklerine bakarak yağışlı ve bol lodoslu bir kış geçirices yani soğuklar kısa vadeli olucak ve ılık hava daha çok olucak tabi soğukların da ne kadar güçlü olacağı malum.Yani üzücü bir tahmin.

    uzun vadeli tahminlere inanmaya hiç gerek yok bence atmosferin değişim hizini göz önüne alırsak. Ayrıca bazı bilgili ustadlar ve hava tahmin uzmanları da bu kışın bol kar yağışlı ve soğuk gececegini belirttiler bence onların dediği gibi olacak aynı 2012 gibi belkide ondan daha güçlü..

    Bu kış 2012 gibi olacak belkide daha iyi olacak sistemlerin çoğunu sibiryadaki sarkmalarla alacağız bu sistemler marmaranın batısında istanbul'da dahil "stormy"fırtınalı geçmesi daha çok olduğu için lodos yada herneyse kuvvetli yağış kütlelerini bize getirecek buda yoğun kar yağışı tipi gibi olaylar yapacak(çoğunlukla marmara için)

    Europe Faces Cold Winter After Longest Warm Spell Since 1964 By Rachel Morison Nov 3, 2014 7:34 PM GMT+02006 Comments Email Print Speed Share
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    Save Temperatures in Europe are forecast to be warmer than average this month in the mildest year since 1964 before plunging below normal this winter, potentially pushing up power and natural gas prices.

    Six of seven forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg predict November to be milder than normal across Europe, marking 10 months of above-average temperatures this year. December through February is expected to be the 10th-coldest winter since 1981, according to MDA Information Systems LLC.

    This year’s weather sapped heating demand for gas and power, with German electricity use down 3.9 percent in the nine months through September, according to energy lobby BDEW in Berlin. U.K. month-ahead gas prices are at their lowest for the time of year since 2010 after last year’s mildest winter in seven years left gas storage levels at record levels.

    “I could imagine that we get a short rally during the winter” on an expected cold snap, Andreas Speer, a senior commodity analyst at Bayerische Landesbank in Munich, said by e-mail on Oct. 31. “But this wouldn’t alter the generally weak outlook for 2015.”

    U.K. month-ahead gas prices slid 20 percent since the start of the year and traded at 54.65 pence ($0.87) a therm at 4:50 p.m. London time, according to broker data compiled by Bloomberg. Month-ahead German power fell 14 percent this year to 33.90 euros ($42.34) a megawatt-hour, broker data show.

    Cold Spell
    Heating demand may increase with the weather turning “considerably colder” than last winter, according to MDA in Gaithersburg, Maryland. WSI Corp. in Andover, Massachusetts, and WeatherBell Analytics LLC also see European temperatures cooling from December.

    Temperatures will be coldest from eastern Europe into Russia, according to Mike Shanahan, chief operating officer at New York-based WeatherBell. Snow may move into western Europe for an extended period in mid-winter, he said.

    Changes to ocean temperature patterns across the North Pacific and North Atlantic indicate that the second half of winter will be colder than the first, according to WSI.

    The 10 months through October were the warmest for more than 50 years, Bradley Harvey, a meteorologist at MDA, said by e-mail on Oct. 30. Temperatures last month were above average for the ninth time this year.

    Gas Storage
    The mild weather caused inventories at Centrica Plc’s Rough gas storage site, the U.K.’s largest, to rise to a record 40.7 terawatt-hours on Oct. 27, the company said on its website.

    Temperatures are forecast to rise as much as 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit) above normal in the seven days to Nov. 16 in the U.K., France, and the Benelux countries, according to Byron Drew, the Reading, England-based lead forecaster at MetraWeather. Some areas of Germany will be as much as 3 degrees warmer than usual through Nov. 23.

    Central Europe will be the warmest region next month with Berlin having the potential to be as much as 4 degrees above normal, according to David Streit, the lead forecaster at Commodity Weather Group in Bethesda, Maryland.

    Northern Europe from the U.K. to Scandinavia will have stronger-than-usual winds in the two weeks through Nov. 23, with above-seasonal rainfall in Scotland and Nordic regions, Stephen Davenport, a London-based senior energy meteorologist at MeteoGroup, said by e-mail. Southern Germany is forecast to have above-average solar generation, he said.

    U.K. wind output is forecast to peak at 5,872 megawatts on Nov. 6, compared with 3,459 megawatts today, according to Bloomberg’s wind model. German solar output will peak at 9,610 megawatts on Nov. 7, Bloomberg’s model shows.

    Meteorologists at MetraWeather, Commodity Weather Group, WSI, German state forecaster Deutscher Wetterdienst, MDA, MeteoGroup and WeatherBell forecast above-average European temperatures in November. The U.K.’s Met Office expects temperatures to be near normal.

    Furkan aynen kaç kere dememıze rağmen her gun her konuda 30 bin kere aynı soruyu sormaktan bıkmadın ama biz cevaplamaktan bıktık kardeşim biraz farklı sorular sorsan biz her zaman cevaplarız ama aynı soruları sorunca herkez gibi bıkıyoruz..!